Vietnamese Shrimp in Europe: What Matters in 2026

In 2025, India shipped 107,650 tonnes of shrimp to the European Union, a 38% increase over eleven months according to VASEP figures reported by vietnam.vn. For a buyer who has been sourcing Vietnamese shrimp on the strength of the EVFTA alone, that number upends the commercial balance of power. A zero tariff was never a guarantee of orders, and it is even less of one today.

Here is what this shift means in practice for anyone drafting a Vietnam specification sheet in 2026: where the pressure is coming from, why tariffs no longer hold it back, and what needs to be written down in black and white to keep the order a winning one.

What India's arrival changes in the European shrimp market

India is not eating into the European market by accident. According to vietnam.vn, quoting Ms Kim Thu, market expert at VASEP (the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers), Indian companies are actively shifting volumes away from the United States, where they face steep tariffs, towards the European Union and China. Over the first eleven months of 2025, India exported 734,600 tonnes of shrimp worldwide for $5.23 billion, up 10% in volume and 17% in value year on year. Over the same period, China imported more than 141,000 tonnes from India, 10% more than in 2024.

The trigger for the shift dates from 27 January 2026: on that day, India and the European Union concluded negotiations on a free trade agreement that paves the way for tariff cuts across a broad range of products, seafood included. According to the European Market Observatory for Fisheries and Aquaculture Products (EUMOFA), which tracks EU import flows line by line, agreements of this kind reshape sourcing patterns for years after they are signed.

Why is India now favouring Europe over the United States?

Because the economics have flipped. US surcharges make the American market less profitable for Indian exporters, who are redirecting volumes towards outlets where margins still hold. Europe, with a trade deal taking shape, is becoming that fallback market, alongside China, which already absorbs 141,000 tonnes of Indian product a year.

For Vietnam, this is not some distant statistical footnote. Over the same period, the country is still growing fast: $4.3 billion in global shrimp exports over the first eleven months of 2025, up 21% year on year, according to Vietnamese customs data cited by vietnam.vn. Whiteleg shrimp (Vannamei) carries most of the volume at $2.8 billion, or 64.8% of total export value. Black Tiger shrimp, by contrast, is stuck at $426 million, up just 4%, held back by lower-cost competitors.

The EVFTA is no longer enough to win a buyer's order

Even before the EVFTA, Vietnam was playing on favourable tariff ground. According to pdm-seafoodmag, in 2016 (before the agreement took effect), out-of-quota duties beyond the 30,000 tonne tariff quota already stood at just 4.2% for whole raw shrimp and raw tails, and 7% for peeled shrimp and butterfly tails. Vietnam was exporting 100,825 tonnes to the EU at the time, ahead of India, which had just dropped below the 100,000 tonne mark after antibiotic residues were detected in its consignments.

The EVFTA removed that remaining duty from 2020 onwards. But a zero tariff has never told two suppliers apart when both enjoy it. What won Vietnam the edge over India in 2016 was not the tariff, it was a compliance failure at the competitor's end. Today the story can flip, if Vietnam is the one letting its standards slip while India tightens compliance to break into a demanding European market.

Should you still bet on Vietnamese origin unconditionally?

No, not unconditionally. We have been sourcing directly from factories in Vietnam for several years, and the pattern never changes: a favourable tariff never makes up for a consignment that fails SIVEP inspection on arrival, or a glazing rate that exceeds what was agreed. Vietnamese origin remains a genuine advantage, as long as the specification sheet behind it is as strict as the one you would impose on an Ecuadorian or Indian supplier.

One more sign of the shift: according to vietnam.vn, the value of Vietnamese exports of processed shrimp products (excluding lobster) jumped 74% in 2025, passing the billion dollar mark. It is the value-added segment, the one that demands the most traceability and factory compliance, that is driving growth, not raw volume.

What European buyers really demand from Vietnamese product

A buyer who reads an Incoterm and negotiates by the container is no longer swayed by a pitch about origin. They check three things before signing: does the stated size count match the actual count, is the glazing rate the one in the contract, and is the factory certification (BRC, IFS) or farm certification (ASC, BAP) numbered and verifiable. Our own figures say exactly the same thing: on emg-seafood.fr, in September 2026, the article on 16/20 and 31/40 size counts drew 410 impressions over the last 30 days according to Search Console, far ahead of any other topic on the site. Size count is not a side issue, it is the first filter.

Which size counts and glazing rates should you insist on for a container?

Size count is negotiated in pieces per pound (16/20, 21/25, 31/40, for example) and must appear, with its tolerance, directly in the FOB contract. The glazing rate needs a ceiling: above 10 to 20% depending on the format, the buyer is paying shrimp prices for frozen water. Both lines should be checked against the maximum glazing rate to accept and verified physically at unloading, not on the supplier's spec sheet.

Which certification should you require, ASC or BAP?

The two do not carry equal weight in every market. ASC (Aquaculture Stewardship Council) is better recognised in Northern Europe and by the major retail chains, while BAP (Best Aquaculture Practices) remains more widespread on the US side. In a European market where India is tightening its compliance to get in, demanding a numbered certificate you can verify online is no longer a nice-to-have. The full breakdown of the differences is in our comparison of ASC vs BAP certification.

What to write into your specification sheet

On this particular subject, four hard numbers need to be down in black and white before anyone signs:

• Size count and tolerance: state the exact count (e.g. 21/25) with a maximum tolerance of 5% off-count pieces per lot.
• Capped glazing rate: set a contractual maximum (10% for bare IQF, 20% for glazed HOSO, for example) and provide for a joint weigh-in on arrival.
• Numbered factory and farm certification: require the factory's BRC or IFS certificate number, and the farm's ASC or BAP number, both verifiable in the certifying bodies' public registers.
• EUR.1 certificate of origin: ask for the complete document at order stage to secure the EVFTA benefit, see our guide to the EUR.1 certificate and the EVFTA.

It is this list, quantified and verifiable, that turns a market question into a purchase order. To get an FOB quote by size count and format, with a reply within 48 hours, those four lines are exactly what we have our factory partners sign before any shipment leaves.

India's rise is not fought off by cutting prices. It is fought off by tightening compliance, size count by size count, certificate by certificate, until the Vietnamese supplier remains objectively the safest choice, not merely the least taxed. Our verdict: list them without hesitation for value-added processed whiteleg shrimp volumes, and watch closely on black tiger, where price competition is already squeezing margins. Before signing the next container, check how solid the factory itself is with our Vietnam supplier checklist.